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My research is focused on improving decision making in the face of significant uncertainty. I know of no better method than decision analysis to accomplish this goal. Decision analysis is a set of axioms, theorems, and methods to transform complex decision problems into ones where the course of action is clear. Decision analysis grew out of the fields of operations research and systems engineering in the mid-1960s and is now applied in every major industry.

The following is the summary of my research interests:
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THE UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS AT AUSTIN

Luis Montiel, Ph.D. in progress
4 years into the program, passed the qualifier. Researching methods to improve our modeling of probabilistic dependence. Luis should graduate by August 2011.



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Kun Zan, Ph.D. in progress
3 years into the program, passed qualifier. Researching the properties of value of information. Kun should graduate by May 2012.


website
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Shubham Agrawal, M.A. in progress
Energy and Earth Resources Student. Should graduate by December 2011.
Shubham is researching the use of geoengineering (or climate engineering) to lessen the risk of climate change.


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Robert Hammond Robert Hammond, M.S. in progress
3 semesters into the program. Researching the importance of stochastic commodity price models within the oil and gas industry. Will graduate in May 2011.


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TEXAS A&M UNIVERSITY

Seong-Dae Kim, Ph.D., 2009. Now at the University of Alaska at Anchorage
Value of investments in better forecasting or increased evacuation speed in the face of natural disasters. He has published his research in the Monthly Weather Review, IEEE Systems, Proceedings of the AMS 19th Conference on Probability and Statistics, and the Proceedings of the Society of Engineering Science.


website
resume
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INFORMS Decision Analysis Society 2006 Practice Award
NSF CAREER Award (2009)

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Refereed Journal Papers, published or accepted for publication

  1. Keller, L. Robin, Ali Abbas, J. Eric Bickel, et al. 2011. “From the Editors: Probability Scoring Rules, Ambiguity, Multiattribute Terrorist Utility, and Sensitivity Analysis.” Decision Analysis 8(4) 251-255. PDF

  2. Bickel, J. Eric, Eric Floehr, and Seong-Dae Kim. 2011. “Comparing NWS POP Forecasts to Third-Party Providers.” Monthly Weather Review 139(11) 3304-3321. PDF

  3. Bickel, J. Eric, Larry W. Lake, John Lehman. 2011. “Discretization, Simulation, and Swanson’s (Inaccurate) Mean.” SPE Economics & Management 3(3) 128-140. PDF

  4. Bickel, J. Eric, Eric Floehr, and Seong-Dae Kim. Forthcoming. “Comparing NWS POP Forecasts to Third-Party Providers.” Monthly Weather Review 139(10) 3304-3321. PDF

  5. Bickel, J. Eric. 2011. "Scoring Rules and Decision Analysis Education." Decision Analysis 7(4) 346-357. PDF

  6. Kim, Seong-Dae and J. Eric Bickel. 2010. "Roads or Radar: The Tradeoff between Investments in Infrastructure and Forecasting when Facing Hurricane Risk." IEEE Systems Journal 4(3) 363-375.

  7. Bratvold, Reidar, J. Eric Bickel, and Hans Petter Lohne. 2009. "Value of Information in the Oil and Gas Industry: Past, Present, and Future." SPE Reservoir Evaluation and Engineering 12(4) 630-638.

  8. Bickel, J. Eric. 2009. “On the Decision to Take a Pitch.” Decision Analysis 6(3) 186-193. PDF

  9. Bickel, J. Eric and Reidar Bratvold. 2008. "From Uncertainty Quantification to Decision Making in the Oil and Gas Industry." Energy Exploration and Exploitation 26(5) 311-325. PDF

  10. Bickel, J. Eric and Seong-Dae Kim. 2008. "Verification of The Weather Channel Probability of Precipitation Forecasts." Monthly Weather Review 136(12) 4867-4881. PDF

  11. Bickel, J. Eric, Richard L. Gibson, Duane A. McVay, Stephen Pickering, and John Waggoner. 2008. "Quantifying 3D Land Seismic Reliability and Value." SPE Reservoir Evaluation and Engineering 11(5) 832-841.

  12. Bickel, J. Eric. 2008. "The Relationship between Perfect and Imperfect Information in a Risk-Sensitive Two-Action Problem." Decision Analysis 5(3) 116-128. PDF

  13. Bickel, J. Eric, James E. Smith, and Jennifer L. Meyer. 2008. "Modeling Dependence Among Geologic Risks in Sequential Exploration Decisions," SPE Reservoir Evaluation and Engineering 11(2) 352-361. Spreadsheet    

  14. Bickel, J. Eric. 2007. "Some Comparisons between Quadratic, Spherical, and Logarithmic Scoring Rules," Decision Analysis 4(2) 49-65. PDF | Supplement

  15. Bickel, J. Eric. 2006. "Some Determinants of Corporate Risk Aversion," Decision Analysis 3(4) 233-251. PDF

  16. Bickel, J. Eric and James E. Smith. 2006. "Optimal Sequential Exploration: A Binary Learning Model," Decision Analysis 3(1), 16-32. PDF | Spreadsheet

  17. Pickering, Steve and J. Eric Bickel. 2006. "The Value of Seismic Information," Oil and Gas Financial Journal 3(5), 26-33. PDF

  18. Bickel, J. Eric. 2004. "Teaching Decision Making with Baseball Examples," INFORMS Transactions on Education 5(1). PDF

  19. Bickel, J. Eric. 2004. "New Insights into an Old Statistic: Why it is so Hard to Hit .400," The Baseball Research Journal 32, 15-21. PDF

  20. Bickel, J. Eric and Dean A. Stotz. 2002. "Batting Average by Count and Pitch Type: Fact and Fallacy," The Baseball Research Journal 31, 29-34. PDF

Book Chapters
  1. Bickel, J. Eric and Lee Lane. 2010. “Climate Engineering.” In: Smart Solutions for Climate Change: Comparing Costs and Benefits, Bjørn Lomborg (ed). Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK.
  2. Lane, Lee and J. Eric Bickel. 2009. “Solar Radiation Management and Rethinking the Goals of COP-15.” In: Copenhagen Consensus on Climate: Advice for Policy Makers by Lane, Lee, J. Eric Bickel, Isabel Galiana, Chris Green, and Valentina Bosetti, Introduction by Bjørn Lomborg,  http://fixtheclimate.com/
Technical Reports
  1. Bickel, J. Eric. 2010. “The Climate Engineering Option: Economics and Policy Implications.” American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research. PDF
  2. Lane, Lee and J. Eric Bickel. 2009. “Solar Radiation Management and Rethinking the Goals of COP-15.” In: Bickel, J. Eric, Lee Lane, Chris Green, Isabel Galiana, and Valentina, Introduction by Bjørn Lomborg, Copenhagen Consensus on Climate: Advice for Policy Makers. http://fixtheclimate.com/
  3. Bickel, J. Eric and Lee Lane. 2009. “The Potential Benefits of Climate Engineering: A Case for Research.” In: Copenhagen Consensus Recommendations for COP-15. Solutions ranked #1 and #3 by an expert panel of economists including three Nobel laureates in economics. You can find the results here http://fixtheclimate.com. You can read about my experience here.

Conference Proceedings

  1. Bickel, J. Eric. 2009. “Experiential Learning and Strictly Proper Scoring Rules,” ASEE Annual Conference, Paper AC 2009-2249, Austin, TX, 17 June. PDF

  2. Bickel. J. Eric and Kun Zan. 2009. “Resource Allocation and the Value of Information,” Grant # 090774 presented at the NSF CMII Research and Innovation Conference, Honolulu, Hawaii, 25-29 June. PDF

  3. Yu, O.-Y, S. D. Guikema, J. E. Bickel, J.-L. Briaud, and D. B. Burnett. 2009. "Systems Approach and Quantitative Decision Tools for Technology Selection in Environmentally Friendly Drilling," paper SPE 120848 presented at the SPE Environmental & Safety Conference, San Antonio, Texas, 23-25 March.

  4. Arcos, D., D. Zhu, and E. Bickel. 2008. "Technical, Economic and Risk Analysis for a Multilateral Well," paper SPE 115099 presented at the SPE Russian Oil and Gas Technical Conference and Exhibition, Moscow, Russia, 28-30 October.

  5. Kim, Seong-Dae and J. Eric Bickel. 2008. "Roads or Radar: Investing in Infrastructure or Improved Forecasting in the Face of Tropical Cyclone Risk," 28th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Orlando, FL, 28 April -02 May. PDF

  6. Bickel, J. Eric and Seong-Dae Kim. 2008. "Verification of The Weather Channel Probability of Precipitation Forecasts," presented at the 19th Conference on Probability and Statistics, 88th American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting, New Orleans, Louisiana, 23 January. PDF

  7. Bickel, J. Eric and Reidar Bratvold. 2007. "Decision-Making in the Oil & Gas Industry – From Blissful Ignorance to Uncertainty Induced Confusion," paper SPE 109610 presented at the SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition, Anaheim, California, 11-14 November.

  8. Bratvold, Reidar, J. Eric Bickel, and Han Petter Lohne. 2007. "Value of Information in the Oil and Gas Industry: Past, Present, and Future," paper SPE 110378 presented at the SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition, Anaheim, California, 11-14 November.

  9. Kim, Seong-Dae and J. Eric Bickel. 2007. "Roads or Radar: Investing in Infrastructure or Improved Forecasting in the Face of Hurricane Risk," Proceedings of the 44th Annual Meeting of the Society of Engineering Science, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, 21-24 October. PDF

  10. Gibson, Rick, J. Eric Bickel, Duane McVay, and Steve Pickering. 2007. " Model-Based Uncertainty Quantification and Seismic Information Value," SEG Technical Program Expanded Abstracts 26(1), 71-75. PDF

  11. Bickel, J. Eric, James E. Smith, and Jennifer L. Meyer. 2006. "Modeling Dependence Among Geologic Risks in Sequential Exploration Decisions," paper SPE 102369 presented at the SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition, San Antonio, Texas, 24-27 September.

  12. Bickel, J. Eric, Richard L. Gibson, Duane A. McVay, Stephen Pickering, and John Waggoner. 2006. "Quantifying 3D Land Seismic Reliability and Value," paper SPE 102340 presented at the SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition, San Antonio, Texas, 24-27 September.

  13. Bickel, J. Eric, Rick Gibson, Duane McVay, Steve Pickering, and John Waggoner. 2006. "Value of Seismic with Multiple Drilling Targets," EAGE Expanded Abstracts, B012. PDF

Submitted, In review, Under revision

  1. Montiel, Luis V. and J. Eric Bickel. 2011. “Simulating Discrete Joint Probability Distributions Subject to Partial Information.” Under review at Winter Simulation Conference. PDF

  2. Zan, Kun and J. Eric Bickel. 2011. “Properties of Portfolio Value of Information.” Under Review at Decision Analysis. PDF

  3. Bickel, J. Eric and Shubham Agrawal. 2011. “Reconsidering the Economics of Aerosol Geoengineering.” Under Review at Climatic Change. PDF0-30 25-50-25

In Preparation for Journal Submission

  1. Bickel, J. Eric. "Climate Risk and the Geoengineering Option."

  2. Hammond, Robert, Bickel, J. Eric and James E. Smith. "The Decision Relevance of Stochastic Price Models."

  3. Bickel, J. Eric. "Strictly Proper Scoring Rules and the Measurement of Uncertainty."

  4. Bickel, J. Eric, Woo Seop Yun, and Seong-Dae Kim. "Calibration: An Investigation of Major League Baseball Betting Markets." 

Theses and Dissertations
Baseball Research
Back in 1994-1995, while in graduate school, I developed a pitch/hit charting software program called ChartMine. ChartMine was used by over 300 colleges, including one-third of Division 1 programs. As part of this effort, I wrote several white papers regarding baseball statistics. I still receive emails asking for this work, so I am posting a few of the papers below.
  • On the Importance of Throwing Strikes. PDF
  • STATS Inc, and the Fallacy of Batting Average by Count. PDF
  • How well do you know baseball? PDF
  • Batting Average by Count and Pitch Type. PDF
  • Why it is so Hard to Hit 400. PDF
  • Teaching Decision Making with Baseball Examples. PDF
  • On the Decision to Take a Pitch. PDF
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Conference Presentations

  1. Bickel. J. Eric and Luis Montiel. 2011. “Accuracy of Multivariate Discrete Distribution Approximations,” Grant # 0954371 presented at the NSF CMMI Research and Innovation Conference, Atlanta, Georgia, 5-7 January.

  2. Bickel. J. Eric and Kun Zan. 2011. “Portfolio Value of Information: Model and Properties,” Grant # 090774 presented at the NSF CMMI Research and Innovation Conference, Atlanta, Georgia, 5-7 January.

  3. Turkarslan, G., D. A. McVay, J. E. Bickel, L. Montiel, and R. Ortiz. 2010. “Integrated Reservoir and Decision Modeling to Optimize Spacing in Unconventional Gas Reservoirs.” Paper CSUG/SPE 137816 presented at the Canadian Unconventional Resources & International Petroleum Conference, Calgary, Alberta, Canada. 19-21 October.

  4. Bickel, J. Eric, Eric Floehr, and Seong-Dae Kim. 2010. “Comparing NWS POP Forecasts to Third-Party Providers,” paper AMS 161669, presented at the 20th Conference on Probability and Statistics, 90th American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting, Atlanta, Georgia, 18 January.

  5. Bickel, J. Eric. 2009. "Geoengineering: Costs, Benefits and Risks," INFORMS Annual Conference, Decision Analysis Track, San Diego, CA, 14 October.

  6. Bickel, J. Eric. 2009. "The relationship between perfect and imperfect information in a risk-sensitive two-action problem," INFORMS Annual Conference, Decision Analysis Track, San Diego, CA, 13 October.

  7. Kim, Seong-Dae and J. Eric Bickel. 2008. “Tradeoff between Investments in Infrastructure and Forecasting in the Face of Hurricane Risk,” INFORMS Annual Conference, Decision Analysis Track, Washington, DC, 14 October.

  8. Bickel, J. Eric. 2008. "Strictly Proper Scoring Rules Theory and Practice," INFORMS Annual Conference, Decision Analysis Track, Washington, DC, 14 October.

  9. Bickel, J. Eric and Eric Floehr. 2008. " Calibration of Probability of Precipitation Forecasts," INFORMS Annual Conference, Decision Analysis Track, Washington, DC, 14 October.

  10. Bickel, J. Eric and Seong-Dae Kim. 2008. "Verification of The Weather Channel Probability of Precipitation Forecasts," 19th Conference on Probability and Statistics, 88th American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting, New Orleans, Louisiana, 23 January.

  11. Bickel, J. Eric and Reidar Bratvold. 2007. "Decision-Making in the Oil & Gas Industry – From Blissful Ignorance to Uncertainty Induced Confusion," SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition, Anaheim, California, 11-14 November.

  12. Bratvold, Reidar, J. Eric Bickel, and Han Petter Lohne. 2007. "Value of Information in the Oil and Gas Industry: Past, Present, and Future," SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition, Anaheim, California, 11-14 November.

  13. Bickel, J. Eric. 2007. "Strictly Proper Scoring Rules and the Measurement of Uncertainty," INFORMS Annual Conference, Decision Analysis Track, Seattle, Washington, 06 November.

  14. Bickel, J. Eric. 2007. "Decision Education for All," INFORMS Annual Conference, Decision Analysis Track, Seattle, Washington, 05 November.

  15. Gibson, Rick, J. Eric Bickel, Duane McVay, and Steve Pickering. 2007. " Model-Based Uncertainty Quantification and Seismic Information Value," SEG Annual Meeting, San Antonio, Texas, 23-28 September.

  16. Bickel, J. Eric. 2007. "Applying OR across the Baseball Decision Hierarchy," Symposium on Statistics and Operations Research in Baseball, Hayward, CA, 11 July 2007.

  17. Bickel, J. Eric. 2007. "Value of Information: From Theory to Practice," INFORMS 2007 Conference on OR Practice, Vancouver, BC, Canada, 30 April – 01 May 2007.

  18. Pickering, Stephen, J. Eric Bickel, Richard L. Gibson, and Duane A. McVay. 2007. "Measuring the Value of Seismic Information in E&P Workflows," Petrotech 2007. New Delhi, India, 15-19 January.

  19. Pickering, Stephen, J. Eric Bickel, Richard L. Gibson, and Duane A. McVay. 2006.  "The Value of Seismic Information," PETEX 2006. London, United Kingdom, 21-23 November.

  20. Bickel, J. Eric. 2006.  "ChartMine®: Using Decision Theory and Data Mining to Improve On-Field Baseball Decision Making," 2006 INFORMS Annual Conference, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, 5-8 November.

  21. Bickel, J. Eric, Rick Gibson, Duane McVay, Steve Pickering, and John Waggoner. 2006. "WesternGeco Uses Decision Analysis to Communicate the Value of Seismic Surveys to Potential Clients," 2006 INFORMS Annual Conference, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, 5-8 November. Winner of the INFORMS Decision Analysis Society 2006 Practice Award.

  22. Bickel, J. Eric, Rick Gibson, Duane McVay, Steve Pickering, and John Waggoner. 2006.  "Value of Seismic with Multiple Drilling Targets," 2006 SEG Annual Meeting, New Orleans, Louisiana, 1-6 October. Appeared in a special session entitled  "The Best of the SBGf Conference."

  23. Bickel, J. Eric, James E. Smith, and Jennifer L. Meyer. 2006.  "Modeling Dependence Among Geologic Risks in Sequential Exploration Decisions," SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition, San Antonio, Texas, 24-27 September.

  24. Bickel, J. Eric, Richard L. Gibson, Duane A. McVay, Stephen Pickering, and John Waggoner. 2006.  "Quantifying 3D Land Seismic Reliability and Value," SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition, San Antonio, Texas, 24-27 September.

  25. Bickel, J. Eric, Rick Gibson, Duane McVay, Steve Pickering, and John Waggoner. 2006.  "Value of Seismic with Multiple Drilling Targets," SEG/SBGf/ULG, Development and Production Forum, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 7-11 August. Selected to appear in a special session at the 2006 SEG Annual Meeting entitled  "The Best of the SBGf Conference."

  26. Bickel, J. Eric, Rick Gibson, Duane McVay, Steve Pickering, and John Waggoner. 2006.  "Value of Seismic with Multiple Drilling Targets," 2006 EAGE Annual Conference, Vienna, Austria, 13 June.

  27. Bickel, J. Eric and Reidar Bratvold. 2006.  "Decision Focused Uncertainty Quantification," SPE/EAGE Workshop  "What do Geoscientists and Engineers Need to do Better Manage Uncertainty?" Dubrovnik, Croatia, 13-16 March.

  28. Bickel, J. Eric and James E. Smith. 2006.  "Optimal Sequential Exploration: A Binary Learning Model," SPE/EAGE Workshop  "What do Geoscientists and Engineers Need to do Better Manage Uncertainty?" Dubrovnik, Croatia, 13-16 March.

  29. Bickel, J. Eric and James E. Smith. 2006.  "Optimal Sequential Exploration: A Binary Learning Model," 2006 DAAG, Baltimore, Maryland, 29-31 March.

  30. Bickel, J. Eric and James E. Smith. 2005.  "Optimal Sequential Exploration: A Binary Learning Model," 2005 INFORMS Annual Conference, San Francisco, California, 13-16 November.

  31. Bickel, J. Eric. 2005.  "Experiential Learning and Strictly Proper Scoring Rules," 2005 INFORMS Annual Conference, San Francisco, California, 13-16 November.

  32. Bickel, J. Eric. 2005.  "On the Value of Throwing Strikes," 2005 INFORMS Annual Conference, San Francisco, California, 13-16 November.

  33. Bickel, J. Eric. 2004.  "Using Decision Analysis to Manage Canadian Resources," Session Chair, CORS/INFORMS, Banff, Alberta, 16-19 May.

  34. Bickel, J. Eric. 2004. "Panel Discussion: Perspectives on Corporate Risk Tolerance," 2004 INFORMS Annual Conference, Denver, Colorado, 24-27 October.

  35. Bickel, J. Eric. 2004. "Teaching Decision Analysis," Session Chair, 2004 INFORMS Annual Conference, Denver, Colorado, 24-27 October.

  36. Bickel, J. Eric. 2004. "Teaching Decision Making with Baseball Examples," 2004 INFORMS Annual Conference, Denver, Colorado, 24-27 October.

  37. Bickel, J. Eric. 2004. "To Take or Not to Take: Optimal Hitting Strategy in Baseball," 2004 INFORMS Annual Conference, Denver, Colorado, 24-27 October.

  38. Bickel, J. Eric. 2003.  "Using Maximum Entropy to Assess the Probability of Success in Oil and Gas Exploration," 2003 INFORMS Annual Conference, Atlanta, Georgia, 19-22 October.

  39. Bickel, J. Eric. 1998.  "The Corporate Contractual System and Normative Corporate Risk Attitude," 1998 INFORMS Annual Conference, Seattle, Washington, 25-28 October.

Invited Lectures

  1. Bickel, J. Eric. 2010. “Climate Engineering as a Response to Climate Change.” The Future of the Electricity Industry, Austin, TX, 10 June.

  2. Bickel, J. Eric. 2010. “The Geoengineering Option: Economics and Policy Implications.” The American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, Washington, DC, 24 February.

  3. Bickel, J. Eric and Lee Lane. 2009. “Climate Engineering Research,” Copenhagen Consensus on Climate Change, Washington, DC, 02 September. Presentation to expert panel comprised of  Jagdish Bhagwati, Finn Kydland (Nobel Laureate), Thomas Schelling (Nobel Laureate), Vernon Smith (Nobel Laureate), and Nancy Stokey.

  4. Bickel, J. Eric. 2008. "Value of Information Demonstration," SPE ATW – Probabilistic Subsurface  Assessments, Houston, Texas, 10-11 November.

  5. Bickel, J. Eric. 2008. "Uncertainty Quantification and Value of Information; Why we do what we do," Marathon Oil, Subsurface Forum, Houston, Texas, 23 October.

  6. Bickel, J. Eric. 2007. “Applying Operations Research Methodologies to Find and Develop a Secure and Sustainable Energy Future,” Operations Research / Industrial Engineering Group, University of Texas, 24 April.

  7. Bickel, J. Eric. 2007. "Value of Information: Theory and Practice," Graziadio School of Business Management, Pepperdine University, 13 November.

  8. Bickel, J. Eric. 2007. "Some Comparisons among Quadratic, Spherical, and Logarithmic Scoring Rules," Operations Research / Industrial Engineering Group, University of Texas, 26 October.

  9. Bickel, J. Eric. 2007. "Quantifying 3D Land Seismic Reliability and Value," Department of Petroleum and Geosystems Engineering, University of Texas at Austin, 17 September.

  10. Bickel, J. Eric. 2007. "Value of Information," Eni Exploration and Production, Eni Corporate University, Milan, Italy, 25-27 June.

  11. Bickel, J. Eric. 2007. "Decision-Focused Profit Predication," SPE Forum – The Future of Profit Prediction, Colorado Springs, CO, 04 – 08 June 2007.

  12. Bickel, J.E., R.L. Gibson, D.A. McVay, S. Pickering, and J. Waggoner. 2006. "Quantifying 3D Land Seismic Reliability and Value," Houston SPE Reservoir Study Group, Houston, Texas, 24 October.

  13. Bickel, J. Eric. 2006. “Optimal Sequential Exploration,” McCombs School of Business, University of Texas at Austin, 05 May.

  14. Bickel, J. Eric. 2005. “Optimal Sequential Exploration,” Optimization Technology Group, ExxonMobil Research, 19 August. Bickel, J. Eric. 2005. “Optimal Sequential Exploration,” National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center (NISAC), Sandia National Laboratories, 27 June.

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The University of Texas at Austin
Texas A&M University
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NSF (National Science Foundation)
RPSEA (Research Partnership to Secure Energy for America)
DOE (Department of Energy)
WesternGeco
Schlumberger
The American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
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Informs
ORIE
CIEEP
CPARM
Jeeps
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